Electromagnetic warfare emerges as decisive factor for missile guidance and NATO operations in contested environments.

The RAND Corporation published an analysis highlighting electromagnetic warfare (EMW) as a critical and potentially decisive factor in future high-intensity conflicts involving NATO forces.

The commentary warns that modern military operations, including missile and precision-strike systems, remain heavily dependent on access to the electromagnetic spectrum, making them increasingly vulnerable in environments characterised by jamming, spoofing, and electronic attack.

RAND notes that adversaries have invested significantly in capabilities designed to disrupt satellite navigation, communications, and sensor systems, effectively degrading the performance of weapons reliant on GNSS-based guidance. In such contested environments, missiles and other precision-guided munitions face elevated risks of guidance loss, reduced accuracy, or mission failure unless equipped with robust electronic protection and alternative navigation methods.

The analysis tells that electromagnetic warfare should no longer be treated as a niche enabler but rather as a core domain of warfare, alongside land, air, sea, cyber, and space. RAND argues that NATO’s current force planning and capability development processes do not yet sufficiently prioritise electromagnetic resilience, creating operational blind spots that adversaries could exploit.

To address this gap, the commentary calls for accelerated investment in EW-resilient guidance architectures, including hardened GNSS receivers, multi-sensor navigation fusion, inertial systems, and adaptive antennas capable of operating under sustained electronic attack. These technologies are identified as essential to maintaining operational effectiveness for missile systems and strike platforms in future conflicts.

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